Portfolio Performance Analysis

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Average Return Calculator: CAGR & Growth Model

Determine average annual investment returns and CAGR while stripping away market noise.

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Investment Data

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The Reality Filter

Historical avg: 3%. Inflation rates vary over time and are used here as a purchasing power adjustment, not a future prediction.

Capital Gains Impact

CAGR (Smoothed Annualized Return)

Represents a mathematical average, not year-by-year performance

9.60%
Real Return (Net)
6.40%
Total Growth
150%
Inflation Loss$6,398
Market Delta-0.4% vs S&P
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Impact of Inflation on Investment Returns

Your money grew by 9.60% nominally, but after adjusting for purchasing power, your real returns were 6.40% annually. Real returns reflect purchasing power, not guaranteed outcomes.

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Tax Liability Estimate

$2,250 at exit

Net CAGR8.57%
Model Assumptionsโ–ผ

โ€ข Returns are modeled as evenly distributed over time

โ€ข Inflation is applied as a constant annual rate

โ€ข CAGR reflects long-term smoothing, not interim volatility

โ€ข Results are illustrative and not predictive

Growth Curve & Inflation Gap

The "Gap" represents wealth that exists only as higher prices, not as increased buying power.

Yr 0
Yr 1
Yr 2
Yr 3
Yr 4
Yr 5
Yr 6
Yr 7
Yr 8
Yr 9
Yr 10
Nominal Portfolio Value
Real Purchasing Power

Why CAGR Beats Simple Averages Over Time

CAGR smooths volatility into a single rate, which makes it useful for comparisonโ€”but it does not reflect the emotional or timing realities of real-world investing.

CAGR vs Average Return

If you lose 50% one year and gain 50% the next, your simple average is 0%, but you've actually lost 25% of your money. CAGR captures this 'Volatility Drag' by accounting for compounding effects.

The Rule of 72

At your calculated CAGR of 9.6%, your money would double every 7.5 years, assuming consistent compounding.

The 1% Impact

A 1% difference in CAGR over 30 years can significantly impact final portfolio value. This illustrates why understanding real vs nominal returns matters for long-term planning.

Why Volatility Timing Still Matters

Two investments can have the same CAGR and end value while delivering very different experiences along the way. Losses early in a holding period can have a larger impact than losses laterโ€”a concept known as sequence-of-returns risk. CAGR provides a smoothed metric for comparison, but it does not capture the psychological or practical impact of interim volatility.

Understanding Real vs Nominal Returns

Portfolio performance is often judged in a vacuum. To understand if you are truly building wealth, you must account for the impact of inflation on investment returns. Real returns adjust for purchasing power, while nominal returns reflect raw dollar growth.

Average Return FAQ

? What is a good average annual return for a portfolio?

Historically, a 100% equity portfolio (S&P 500) has returned roughly 10% annually before inflation. A balanced '60/40' portfolio has typically targeted 6-8% nominal returns. These are historical averages and do not predict future performance. Returns that exceed inflation by a meaningful margin have historically been considered strong, but individual results vary.

? How is CAGR different from simple average return?

Simple average is just the sum of yearly returns divided by the number of years. CAGR is the 'smoothed' rate that would be required for the investment to grow from its starting to ending value, assuming the investment compounded annually.

? How do I calculate CAGR in Excel?

You can use the formula: =((EndValue/StartValue)^(1/Years))-1 or the RRI function: =RRI(Years, StartValue, EndValue).

? Is 7% a realistic annual return for the stock market?

Historical data shows that while the market is volatile year-to-year, the long-term real return (after inflation) of the US stock market has averaged around 6.5% to 7% over extended periods. Past performance does not guarantee future results, and individual investment outcomes will vary based on timing, fees, and market conditions.

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Financial Estimation Note

General Projections: Results are mathematical estimates based on current rates and standard formulas (including 2026 tax brackets). They are intended for high-level planning only.

No Advice Provided: This site does not provide financial, tax, or legal advice. Using this tool does not create a client-advisor relationship with CalcRegistry.

Confirm Numbers: Financial laws change frequently. Please verify all results with a qualified professional (CPA, Financial Planner, or Lawyer) before making significant financial decisions.

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